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02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New head coaches, especially those with struggling teams, are often quick to sidestep questions about win totals measuring their success.
You've probably heard the coach speak before: If the team gets back to the basics and does all the little things it is supposed to do, then the winning will fall into place.
Of course, if that doesn't happen, then the coach will keep his moves like Jagger the next time the media ask about a timeframe for winning.
It's usually the veteran coaches, and winning coaches, who are more open to wins and losses being a barometer.
Whether that's fair or not is debatable because, well, graduating players is an important measuring stick that too often is overlooked by sports fans.
It makes what football coach Rob Ambrose did in his third season at Towson all the more impressive.
Last year, he turned a team that was 3-19 in his first two seasons into the CAA Football champion and a Top 10 team. But he also had told his team in no- uncertain terms that it was time to start winning. He was even accountable publically ( http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/misc/haley/archive/haley_7_01_2011.htm).
By year three, the honeymoon is over for coaches. They have had time to get their assistant coaches, recruits and philosophies in place. The struggling ones must say it's time to start winning more.
Some coaches who came on board for the 2010 season have taken their programs to great heights in their first two seasons, such as Sam Houston State's Willie Fritz, who had the Bearkats ranked No. 1 last season on their way to a national runner-up finish; Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken and Montana's Robin Pflugrad, who have reached the national semifinals; and Bethune- Cookman's Brian Jenkins, Murray State's Chris Hatcher and Portland State's Nigel Burton, who have orchestrated turnarounds with their programs.
To a lesser extent, Bucknell's Joe Susan, Cornell's Kent Austin, Lamar's Ray Woodard, Tennessee State's Ron Reed and Youngstown State's Eric Wolford have brought excitement to their programs.
But others need to make sure year three is so much better than the first two - channel their inner Ambrose with his blueprint.
There's Princeton third-year coach Bob Surace, who turned in his black-and- orange stripes with the Cincinnati Bengals to return to the ones he wore in the Ivy League with the Tigers. Surace has played enough young players in the last two seasons for the Tigers to improve dramatically on his 2-18 record, although running back Chuck Dibilio, the league's 2011 freshman of the year, is trying to recover from a stroke suffered less than five weeks ago.
Saint Francis (Pa.) hasn't posted a winning season since 1992, but the Northeast Conference team appears primed to show improvement under Chris Villarrial, who is 3-19 through two seasons. With the return of running back Kyle Harbridge (1,430 yards, 14 touchdowns), it could happen.
In the Southwestern Athletic Conference, Southern took a big step in Stump Mitchell's second season, doubling its win total from two in 2010 to four. Meanwhile, Mississippi Valley State ended a 19-game losing streak in Karl Morgan's second season, although it's his only win in his two seasons.
Dale Carlson also has only one win in two seasons at Valparaiso, which has been the FCS' worst program recently. But the Pioneer Football League team has a young nucleus, including quarterback Eric Hoffman, that appears ready for greater success.
Nicholls State dropped from 4-7 in 2010 to 1-10 in Charlie Stubbs' second season. This year's schedule is front-loaded with difficult games, so the Colonels may need to win some games late in the season to show marked improvement.
One program that likely faces a rough going in coach Bill Curry's third season is Georgia State, which is joining the CAA after two seasons as a startup independent. After going 6-5 in 2010, the Panthers fell to 3-8 last season and now have a tougher schedule ahead.
Then again, it was easy to cast doubt on Towson going into 2011.
Most head coaches of struggling teams may talk about progress more than the wins. Even if it's just behind the scenes, it's time they demand accountability in the win column.
<< FedEx extends sponsorship of FedExCup
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The PGA Tour and FedEx announced on
Wednesday a five-year extension of the company's sponsorship of the FedExCup.
The FedExCup is a year-long competition that began in 2007. This new deal will
keep
<< Green and Colorado State get past New Mexico
Fort Collins, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dorian Green scored 17 points and Pierce
Hornung finished with a double-double, as Colorado State knocked off No. 18
New Mexico, 71-63, at Moby Arena.
Hornung logged 13 points and 15 rebounds, while
<< Trail Blazers blow out shorthanded Spurs by 40
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seven different Trail Blazers scored in double
figures, led by 21 from LaMarcus Aldridge, as Portland embarrassed San Antonio
137-97 at Rose Garden on Tuesday.
Jamal Crawford netted 20 points and handed ou
<< Isner, Harrison move on in Memphis
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Americans John Isner and Ryan Harrison were
first-round winners at the $1.155 million Regions Morgan Keegan Championships
on Tuesday.
Isner, the tournament's top seed, defeated Gilles Muller 7-6 (7-1), 7-
Kings take losing ways to Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Sacramento Kings try to put the brakes on a six-game
slide this evening when they visit the Washington Wizards in the final game
before the All-Star break for both teams.
Sacramento's losing ways continued on Wed
Pacers pay a visit to Bobcats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers try to make it four straight wins this
evening when they visit the hapless Charlotte Bobcats at Time Warner Cable
Arena.
The Pacers continued their recent winning ways on Tuesday, as Roy Hibbe
Jazz, Wolves square off at Target Center >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Northwest Division rivals meet at Target Center
tonight when the Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves both try to get back to
the .500 mark on the season and stay out of the cellar in the division.
Oklahoma C
Lakers carry recent baggage into Big D >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Lakers will attempt to put some off-the-court turmoil
behind them tonight when they visit the impetus for much of the acrimony, the
Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavs dethroned the Lakers last season, sweeping them out of
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting